The Tariff Shock

Change in bilateral trade volume vs. 2017 baseline, by country (Jan 2017 – Mar 2026)

Each row is a country, grouped by region. Each column is a quarter. Color shows the change in goods trade volume with the United States relative to Q1 2017 (pre-tariff baseline). Green = trade growth above baseline. Red = trade contraction below baseline. The first Trump tariff wave (2018) and second wave (2025–26) are marked with vertical lines.

Trade volume vs. 2017 baseline
−40%0%+60%
Major tariff action
Retaliatory tariffs
Trade deal / pause

Data modeled from USITC DataWeb, UN Comtrade, and Census Bureau trade statistics. Visualization format after WSJ / Observable.